CONSUMER AND BUSINESS CONFIDENCE - SEPTEMBER 2023

In September 2023, both consumer confidence (from 106.5 to 105.4) and the composite business confidence index are expected to decline from 106.7 to 104.9.

Among the series of components of the consumer confidence index, negative signals emerge from the variables that refer to the general economic situation while there is greater heterogeneity among the variables that refer to the personal situation. These variations are summarised by the four indicators calculated monthly from the same components: the economic climate, the current climate and the future climate decrease, respectively, from 121.5 to 115.2, from 101.4 to 100.2 and from 114.1 to 113.2; Instead, the personal climate increases from 101.5 to 102.2.

With reference to companies, for all the sectors investigated, a reduction in the confidence index is estimated with the exception of construction. More specifically, the confidence index fell in manufacturing from 97.7 to 96.4, in services from 103.5 to 100.5 and in trade from 108.7 to 107.3. In construction, the index rose slightly from 160.2 to 160.9.

As for the components of the confidence indices, in manufacturing and services all the variables worsen. In the retail sector, sales assessments deteriorated markedly, while sales expectations fell slightly as inventories fell. With regard to construction, assessments of construction orders/plans are optimistic, while employment expectations at the company are negative.

Based on the assessments provided by entrepreneurs on the conditions of access to bank credit, conditions are expected to worsen in the third quarter of 2023.

ANALYSIS

In September, the decline in the business confidence index extends to all sectors of activity, with the exception of construction. The overall index stands at the same value as in October 2022.

The consumer confidence index fell for the third consecutive month to its lowest level since last June. There was a marked deterioration in assessments of the general economic situation, an increase in unemployment expectations and an improvement in assessments of the financial situation of the household.

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