NON-EU FOREIGN TRADE - AUGUST 2023

In August 2023, for trade with non-EU27 countries, a quarterly increase is estimated for both flows, larger for exports (+7.1%) than for imports (+3.8%).

The strong month-on-month increase in exports is explained by higher sales of energy (+49.5%), capital goods (+9.1%) and non-durable consumer goods (+8.5%). Exports of intermediate goods increased slightly (+0.6%) while those of durable consumer goods decreased (-4.8%). On the import side, there were quarterly increases for all groups, with the exception of intermediate goods (-2.3%); The most marked were imports of energy (+12.1%) and non-durable consumer goods (+5.2%).

In the June-August 2023 quarter, compared to the previous one, exports grew by 1.3%; The increase concerns all groupings, with the exception of intermediate goods (-2.8%). In the same period, imports fell by 5.7%, almost entirely due to the decline in purchases of energy (-9.4%) and intermediate goods (-8.5%).

In August 2023, exports recorded year-on-year growth of 8.8% (it was -6.7% in July), driven by higher sales of capital goods (+27.6%) and non-durable consumer goods (+8.6%). Imports recorded a sharp contraction (-32.7%), generalized and broader for energy (-52.2%) and intermediate goods (-27.7%).

In August 2023, the trade balance with non-EU27 countries was positive and amounted to +3,061 million (-7,762 million in August 2022). The energy deficit (-€5,095 million) more than halved compared to a year earlier (-€11,837 million) while the surplus in trade in non-energy products, amounting to €8,156 million, is high and up sharply compared to August 2022 (+€4,075 million).

In August 2023, exports to the United States (+34.0%), Japan (+16.3%), OPEC countries (+14.7%) and Switzerland (+8.1%) increased year-on-year; On the other hand, sales to the United Kingdom (-10.1%), China (-9.4%) and Turkey (-9.0%) decreased.

In August 2023, there were year-on-year contractions in purchases from all major non-EU27 partner countries, with the exception of the United Kingdom (+14.6%). Imports from Russia recorded the largest year-on-year decline (-90.6%); Purchases from ASEAN countries (-38.4%), MERCOSUR countries (-35.3%), OPEC countries (-33.7%) and China (-32.0%) were also marked.

Analysis

After the setback in July, exports to non-EU27 countries returned to growth in August in both cyclical and trend terms. The growth was driven in particular by higher sales of non-durable consumer goods and capital goods and was influenced by occasional high-impact movements (shipbuilding) to the United States, net of which the growth profile was lower (+4.1% on a monthly basis, +2.7% on an annual basis).

Imports, interrupting the negative economic dynamics of the previous three months, recorded an increase almost entirely explained by higher purchases of energy and non-durable consumer goods; On an annual basis, it confirmed a sharp decline for the eighth consecutive month.

Compared to a year earlier, the surplus in trade in non-energy products with non-EU27 countries doubled.

FDT CONSULTING