NON-EU FOREIGN TRADE - AUGUST 2023

In September 2023, trade with non-EU27 countries is estimated to have decreased cyclically for both flows, larger for exports (-6.9%) than for imports (-2.1%).

The month-on-month contraction in exports is explained by lower sales of capital goods (-12.5%) and non-durable consumer goods (-9.3%). On the other hand, exports of durable consumer goods (+6.5%) and energy (+2.5%) increased; those of intermediate goods were almost stationary (+0.2%). On the import side, excluding energy (+8.5%), there were quarterly reductions for all groups; The most marked were capital goods (-9.0%) and durable consumer goods (-8.7%).

In the third quarter of 2023, compared to the previous quarter, exports grew by 0.5%, due to higher sales of energy (+19.5%) and capital goods (+1.5%). In the same period, imports fell by 4.4%, to which the decrease in purchases of intermediate goods (-11.4%) contributed significantly.

In September 2023, exports fell year-on-year by 7.2% (from +8.9% in August). The decrease was due to the reduction in sales of intermediate goods (-12.8%), non-durable consumer goods (-11.9%) and durable goods (-7.5%). Imports recorded a sharp contraction (-32.3%), generalized and broader for energy (-49.7%) and intermediate goods (-26.2%).

In September 2023, the trade balance with non-EU27 countries was positive and amounted to +2,780 million (-5,430 million in September 2022). The energy deficit (-€5,493 million) more than halved compared to a year earlier (-€12,096 million) while the surplus in trade in non-energy products, amounting to €8,273 million, is high and up compared to September 2022 (+€6,666 million).

In September 2023, there were year-on-year reductions in exports to almost all major non-EU27 partner countries; the largest are China (-14.0%), the United Kingdom (-13.2%), OPEC countries (-12.1%) and the United States (-11.9%). On the other hand, sales to MERCOSUR countries (+4.0%) and Japan (+2.2%) increased.

Except for the United States (+14.4%), imports from all major non-EU27 partner countries are down sharply year-on-year. Purchases from Russia recorded the largest year-on-year decline (-86.2%); Purchases from OPEC countries (-36.4%), ASEAN countries (-36.3%) and China (-34.4%) were also marked.

Commentary

After the increase in August, exports to non-EU countries recorded a large cyclical downturn in September. However, this trend was affected by the occasional high-impact transactions (shipbuilding) recorded in the previous month, net of which the decline was reduced to -2.2%. On average for the third quarter of 2023, the economic momentum is slightly positive.

On an annual basis, the decline in exports affects almost all the main non-EU27 partners and is explained for more than a third by the reduction in sales to the United States; while that of imports, which is much larger, is due for more than half to the contraction in purchases from Russia, China and OPEC countries.

In the first nine months of the year, the trade balance with non-EU27 countries was positive for €28.6 billion (it was -€29.2 billion in the same period of 2022).

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