CONSUMER AND BUSINESS TRUST - OCTOBER 2023

In October 2023, a decrease is estimated in both the consumer confidence climate (the index goes from 105.4 to 101.6) and in the composite business confidence climate index, which drops from 104.9 to 103.9 . There is a widespread worsening of consumer opinions on both the personal and general economic situation. Consistently, the four indicators calculated monthly starting from the same components show negative dynamics: the economic climate and the future climate record the most significant declines (the first goes from 115.2 to 110.5 and the second from 113.2 to 107, 7); the current climate drops from 100.2 to 97.4 and the personal climate drops from 102.2 to 98.6. With reference to businesses, a reduction in the confidence index is estimated, albeit with different intensities, in manufacturing and services. In construction, in contrast, confidence is improving. More specifically, the confidence index drops in manufacturing from 96.4 to 96.0; in market services and retail trade the decline is more marked with the index going from 100.5 to 98.1 and from 107.1 to 106 respectively. In construction, however, the indicator rises (from 160.9 to 163.8). As for the components of the confidence indices, in manufacturing the opinions on orders worsen while expectations on production grow and inventories are judged to be decreasing slightly. In construction all components improve. Moving on to market services, both opinions on orders and those on business performance are worsening, while expectations on orders are increasing. As regards retail trade, assessments on sales are characterized by optimism in the presence, however, of an accumulation of inventories and a deterioration in sales expectations. According to the usual quarterly questions on production capacity addressed to manufacturing companies, a decrease in the degree of plant utilization is estimated in the third quarter of 2023. For further details, please refer to the in-depth information on page. 8. 

ANALYSES 

In October, the decline in the business confidence index extends to all sectors except construction. The overall index reaches its lowest value since April 2021. The consumer confidence index decreases for the fourth consecutive month, reaching the lowest value since January 2023. There is a general worsening of all the nine variables that make up the indicator with the exception of unemployment expectations, which are improving, and judgments on the family economic situation, the balance of which grows slightly.

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