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Italy's GDP is expected to grow by 0.7% in both 2023 and 2024, slowing down compared to 2022.

Over the two-year forecast period, GDP growth would be mainly supported by the contribution of domestic demand net of inventories (+0.8 percentage points in 2023 and +0.7 p.p. in 2024) against a marginally negative contribution from net foreign demand in 2023 (-0.1 p.p.) and zero in 2024. On the other hand, the contribution from stocks is expected to be nil in both years.

Domestic demand will be mainly driven by private consumption (+1.4% in 2023 and +1.0% in 2024) supported by the deceleration of inflation, a gradual (albeit partial) recovery in wages and employment growth. Investments are expected to slow down sharply compared to the previous two years (+0.6% in both years).

Employment, measured in terms of work units (AWU), will increase in line with GDP (+0.6% in 2023 and +0.8% in 2024), accompanied by a decline in the unemployment rate (7.6% this year and 7.5% next year).

Inflation will be reduced as a result of lower energy prices and the consequences of the ECB's restrictive monetary policies. The dynamics of the deflator of resident household expenditure fall to +5.4% in the current year and to +2.5% in 2024.

The forecast scenario assumes the continuation of the decline in consumer prices and the prices of imported raw materials, a gradual recovery in world trade and the gradual implementation of the investment plan envisaged in the PNRR.

An in-depth analysis of the assessment of the macroeconomic effects of the 2024 budget law shows results in line with the NADEF, albeit with greater effects on consumption than on investments.