MONTHLY NOTE ON THE PERFORMANCE OF THE ITALIAN ECONOMY - SEPTEMBER 2023

The international picture is characterized by different cyclical positions of the main economies and uncertainty about the continuation of the phase of deceleration in inflation, which is weighed down by the rise in energy commodity prices.

The revisions of the quarterly national accounts, in Italy, confirmed the cyclical changes in GDP for the first part of 2023 previously released: the increase between January and March (+0.6%) was followed by a decline in the second quarter (-0.4%).

On the supply side, the seasonally adjusted index of industrial production grew by 0.2% in August compared to the previous period and on average June-August it increased by 0.4%.

The average increase in household final consumption expenditure in the second quarter, in the face of substantial stability in disposable income, was accompanied by a decline in the propensity to save, which had already been below pre-Covid levels for several quarters.

The Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) increased in September and the positive spread with the euro area average widened substantially.

The results of the household and business surveys in September suggest that the weakness of the Italian economy could continue in the coming months.

FDT CONSULTING